GIS-based Spatial Modelling of Hybrid Renewable Energy Potential in the Caspian Sea Islands: A Case Study of Pirallahi, Azerbaijan

Abstract

This study presents a geospatial assessment of hybrid wind-solar energy potential on Pirallahi Island, Azerbaijan, using GIS-based spatial constraint and suitability analysis. It employs MERRA-2 reanalysis data (1981–2022), validated with ground observations and complemented by Global Solar Atlas (GSA) and Global Wind Atlas (GWA) datasets. Mean wind speed at 10 m is 4.94 m/s, and annual GHI is 1526 kWh/m2. The framework integrates topographic, infrastructural, land-use, and environmental constraints. Power generation was estimated for PV systems and 3.45 MW IEC-class wind turbines, including system losses. Results indicate that 3.2 km2 is suitable for solar PV, providing 100.2 MW capacity and 158 GWh/year (CF: 0.18), while 5.6 km2 can accommodate 12 wind turbines with 41.4 MW capacity and 120.9 GWh/year gross (weighted CF: 0.333; onshore CF = 0.30, offshore CF = 0.35). Net hybrid generation after separate losses is estimated at 255.6 GWh/year, while a conservative 14% blanket-loss sensitivity case yields 239.9 GWh/year. This study provides the first high-resolution assessment of Pirallahi Island’s hybrid wind-solar potential, generation estimates, and demand-surplus dynamics. The proposed system significantly exceeds local demand, revealing a substantial annual surplus available for grid export.