SEIR Model Analysis of the Omicron Variant Spread in Bulgaria – an Empirical Study

Authors

  • Ognyan Kounchev Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
  • Georgi Boyadzhiev Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy
  • Georgi Simeonov Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
  • Methody Kunchev Military Medical Academy, Bulgaria
  • Zhana Kuncheva London, UK

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7546/CRABS.2023.01.12

Keywords:

mathematical modelling, epidemiology, prediction, Covid-19, Omicron

Abstract

We provide a study of the Covid-19 spread in Bulgaria in the period starting December 15, 2021 until early February, 2022. In particular, we provide predictive scenarios for the peak of the pandemic. Based on these scenarios, we estimate the risks in terms of fatalities in the case no restrictive measures are imposed. The main challenge is distinguishing the influence of the Delta variant which is still dominating in December, 2021, while Omicron becomes dominant in early January, 2022.

Author Biographies

Ognyan Kounchev, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

Mailing Address:
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Akad. G. Bonchev St, Bl. 8
1113 Sofia, Bulgaria

E-mail: kounchev@math.bas.bg

Georgi Boyadzhiev, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy

Mailing Address:
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Akad. G. Bonchev St, Bl. 8
1113 Sofia, Bulgaria

and

University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy
1 H. Smirnenski Blvd
1046 Sofia, Bulgaria

E-mail: gpb@math.bas.bg

Georgi Simeonov, Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

Mailing Address:
Institute of Mathematics and Informatics,
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Akad. G. Bonchev St, Bl. 8
1113 Sofia, Bulgaria

E-mail: georgesimeo@gmail.com

Methody Kunchev, Military Medical Academy, Bulgaria

Mailing Address:
Military Medical Academy
3 St. George Sofiiski St
1606 Sofia, Bulgaria

E-mail: mkunchev@yahoo.com

Zhana Kuncheva, London, UK

Mailing Address:
London, UK

E-mail: z.kuncheva@gmail.com

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Published

30-01-2023

How to Cite

[1]
O. Kounchev, G. Boyadzhiev, G. Simeonov, M. Kunchev, and Z. Kuncheva, “SEIR Model Analysis of the Omicron Variant Spread in Bulgaria – an Empirical Study”, C. R. Acad. Bulg. Sci., vol. 76, no. 1, pp. 114–119, Jan. 2023.

Issue

Section

Medicine