Characteristics of Spatiotemporal Distribution of Atmospheric Precipitation in the Kura-Aras Lowland Region

Abstract

This study analyzes spatiotemporal variability patterns of atmospheric precipitation in the Kura intermountain lowland region, utilizing observational data from 15 hydrometeorological stations (1961–2023) and employing modern mathematical-statistical, physical, and cartographic methods to examine both extreme precipitation events (1961–2023) and contemporary distribution patterns (monthly, seasonal, annual, and spatial for 1991–2023).

In the Kura lowland region (1991–2023), mean annual precipitation averaged 285 mm, with 46% occurring in warm and 54% in cold seasons. Precipitation increases southeast-northwest during warm periods, reversing in cold seasons. Compared to the 1981–2010 climate norm, annual precipitation decreased by 9% (27 mm) during 2011–2023, with 70% of wettest years occurring before 1994. Maximum precipitation events declined by 23% in 2011–2020. Annual recurrence predominantly features 10–40 mm precipitation gradations (<10, 11–20, 21–30, 31–40 mm). Continued climate trends threaten expanded ecological crises (drought, salinization) in this key agricultural zone. Findings inform land-use planning, mapping, economic assessments, and climate mitigation strategies.